Forecasts reveal demand for 38,050 airplanes over 20 years
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Recent forecasts reports from Boeing state that there will be a demand for 38,050 new airplanes over the next 20 years.
This would result in an increase of 3.5% over last year’s forecast. Boeing recently released its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO), estimating total value of those new airplanes at US$5.6 trillion.
Randy Tinseth, vice president, marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes said: “The commercial airplane market continues to be strong and resilient. As we look forward, we expect the market to continue to grow and demand for new aircraft to be robust.”
By the end of the forecast period, commercial airplane fleet will double, from 21,600 airplanes in 2014 to 43,560 airplanes in 2034. Some 58% of the 38,050 airplanes delivered over that time will be to accommodate growth. Passenger traffic will continue to grow at about a 4.9% annual pace. More than seven billion passengers will fly by end of the forecast period.
The single-aisle market continues to be the fastest-growing overall segment, requiring 26,730 airplanes over the coming two decades. These aircraft carry up to 75% of passengers on more than 70% of the world’s commercial aviation routes. This sector is fuelled by growth in low-cost carriers and airlines in developing and emerging markets.
About 35% of the single-aisle market will go to low-cost carriers. Tinseth noted: “Low-cost carriers will require airplanes that combine best economics with most revenue potential. With 20% lower fuel use, the 737 MAX 200 will be the ideal machine.”
Boeing forecasts that the widebody segment will require 8,830 new airplanes, led, it believes, by small widebody airplanes in the 200- to 300-seat range such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner.
This year’s Boeing forecast reflects a continued shift in demand from very large airplanes such as the Airbus A380, to efficient new twin-engine products such as the 787 and new 777X.
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