PATA forecasts growth of Asia Pacific arrivals
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The Executive Board of the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) today released its forecasts of tourism demand across the Asia Pacific region for the next three years. At the aggregate level, international arrival numbers are predicted to increase by an average of around +2.7 percent each year to 2012. Not surprisingly, these forecasts show a significant slowing in growth rates from the pre-financial crisis level of seven percent per annum.
According to PATA Chairman Mrs. Phornsiri Manoharn, the three-year projections are very much in line with expectations on how the global economy is expected to perform generally. Overall international arrivals growth to Asia Pacific destinations, for example, are predicted to be marginal at just over one percent in 2010, rising to around 4.5 percent in 2011 and then stabilising at around four percent in 2012. These forecasts are subject to any further major economic, social or health disasters.
On a sub-regional grouping basis, destinations that in aggregate, make up South Asia are forecast to grow the fastest at an average rate of +4.9 percent per annum over the period to 2012, followed by Southeast Asia at +4.8 percent.
Northeast Asia is predicted to expand at a rate of +2.2 percent each year over that same period, while the Pacific can look to increases of around +4.0 percent per annum. North America is forecast to expand by around 1.7 percent per annum to 2012.
Growth is, however, predicted to be very uneven at a number of levels but especially at the individual origin-to-destination country level. Examples of some origin-destination pairs that are predicted to perform very much better than the average Asia Pacific growth rates to 2012 are:
By Average Annual Rate of Growth (%) to 2012:
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