What’s next for Egypt?
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So, here we are. Two years after the Arab Spring and what exactly has changed? The news reports would suggest that the turbulent scenes from 2011 are simply being emulated today. New leader – same people on the streets. It’s as simple as that. But, is that really the case?
Egypt’s 2011 revolution saw the deposition of president Hosni Mubarak, who had led the country since 1981. The end of his administration meant Egypt underwent significant political change. Elections were held to put in place the country’s first democratic leader and an international acknowledged government was installed.
So the question must be raised: why are the Egyptian people demonstrating now that they’ve got what they wanted? According to reports this morning Mohamed Morsi, the elected Muslim Brotherhood president, has been deposed, with the army suspending the constitution and an interim president put in place. These scenes are going to once again throw the country’s tourism industry into jeopardy.
Unsurprisingly British tour operators have confirmed a sizeable drop in Egypt enquiries. Given the scenes which are being televised around the world this is hardly a shock. However, when Egypt underwent similar change in 2011, visitor numbers dropped by 37%. Given that they have yet to recover to pre-Spring levels, it’s hard to see how the country’s tourism industry is going to re-establish itself within the near distant future. So, are the new demonstrations a good thing for country?
During our blog series on Egypt I commented on the fact that Morsi’s government were in talks with the International Monetary Fund for a US$4.8 billion loan, which was needed to prop up Egypt’s ailing economy. The amount was roughly the same as the deficit created by the tourism decrease (US$4.6 billion) – an area of the Egyptian economy which the anti-secular president Morsi was renowned to poorly understand.
To back up the above statement one only needs to cite the insensitive appointment of Adel Mohammed al-Kayat as governor of Luxor. As a member of the Gamaa Islamiya group, Al-Kayat has obvious associations with the terrorist acts which the group carried out in the 1990s – including the murder of 58 tourists at Hatshepsut Temple. The group has now disavowed violence but, according to the Economist: “Reviles figurative art as “idolatry”, dismisses the pre-Islamic era as barbaric, and wishes to ban alcohol and separate the sexes.” To put this man in charge of one of the most important tourist regions within the entire country verges on incompetence – especially at a time when Luxor’s tourism is struggling to the extent that it is. When he arrived in the city graffiti welcomed him, with messages saying: “Mr governor, the terrorist, welcome to the city of idols”. He resigned a week after his appointment.
This all took place in June. Less than a month later and the army has confirmed it has ousted the president and installed the head of the constitutional court Adli Mansour as interim president until elections are held.
With the Foreign & Commonwealth Office putting out warnings against all but essential travel to the country are there any options for travellers? The answer, surprisingly, is yes. Since the Arab Spring certain tour operators like Abercrombie & Kent have developed ‘safety net’ initiatives, which allow travellers the opportunity to postpone their trip for up to two years if there is any sign of trouble. For many regions of Egypt, prices have never so low, which obviously begs the question as to whether these kind of packages could be worth considering…
Egypt’s troubles are testament to the difficulty of transitioning to a functioning democratic government after such an extended period of dictatorship. These period of change take time. However for the country to have any chance of moving on, the new administration must understand how fundamental tourism is to its economy. Egypt has some of the most beautiful and well-preserved artefacts in the world. The gold of Ancient Egypt now looks after the country’s people through the foreign visitors it attracts. These are people desperate for their own Pharaonic experience.
It is so imperative to the lives of the Egyptians that it cannot be ignored.
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