Airlines will the Asia Pacific region will lead global demand for commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, according to the latest market forecast by Airbus.
The report found that the region’s airlines will take delivery of approximately 9,870 new passenger and cargo aircraft in the next two decades, valued at US$1.6 trillion. This represents 35% of all new aircraft deliveries worldwide during this time period, ahead of both Europe and North America. In terms of value, the region will account for 40% of the global market for new aircraft, reflecting the higher proportion of large, twin-aisle aircraft required by Asia Pacific carriers.
In terms of passenger aircraft, Asia Pacific’s total fleet size is expected to more than double, from 4,300 aircraft today to a total of 10,440 in 20 years time. Approximately 3,500, or more than 80%, of the aircraft in service today will be replaced.
“The Asia Pacific market is where the action will be in the air transport market over the next 20 years,” said Leahy. “Growing economies, bigger cities and increasing wealth will see more people flying, driving the need for larger and more efficient aircraft.”
Despite this, the Indian aviation industry lost a combined $2 billion last year and all but unlisted IndiGo lost money. Kingfisher Airlines is also in a world of trouble.
“Whenever a market is growing rapidly with new entrants, you have a risk of some people stumbling and others will move ahead,” Leahy said.
“The Indian market has been a two-edged sword….The highest fuel cost anywhere in the world is in India. That of course puts a dampener on traffic,” he told reporters.
“It needs more infrastructure support from the government and it needs the government to let the open market work and not try to keep propping up their national carrier with billions of rupees in terms of support.”
Airbus predicted that carriers in the region will acquire some 3,840 large aircraft over the next 20 years, accounting for 44% of total global demand. These are expected to comprise 3,080 twin-aisle aircraft, such as the A330, A350, Boeing 777 or B787, plus around 760 very large aircraft, such as the A380 or B747-8. Asia Pacific is also expected to see an extra 6,030 new single-aisle jets, such as the A320 or B737, driven by the low-cost carrier sector.
