“Aviation mega-cities” to drive air travel growth – Airbus

The emergence of Asia’s middle classes and the growth of “aviation mega-cities” in the region will be the key driving forces behind the growth of the aviation sector in the coming decades, Airbus has predicted.

Releasing its latest Global Market Forecast for the 2014-2033 period, the European planemaker said that strong economic growth rates and increased urbanisation in Asian countries are fuelling demand for air travel. And this, in turn, is driving demand for new aircraft.

“The middle classes in Asia are expected to quadruple in size by 2033 whereas globally they will double from 33% to 63% of world population,” Airbus stated. “As a result of increased urbanisation and concentration of wealth, the number of aviation mega-cities worldwide will double to 91. These cities will be centres of world wealth creation with 35% of world GDP centred there, with more than 95% of all long-haul traffic going to from or through them,” it added.

Overall, global passenger traffic is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.7% over the next 20 years, driving the need for around 31,400 new aircraft worth US$4.6 trillion. This will see the global aircraft fleet more than double from today’s 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033. Some 12,400 older, less fuel-efficient jets will be retired.

“Aviation is growing impressively and our latest forecast confirms its long-term growth. While mature aviation regions such as Europe and North America will continue to grow, Asia will stand out along with emerging markets for dynamic development,” said John Leahy, Airbus’ chief operating officer for customers. “This growth trend is confirmed by Chinese domestic traffic becoming the world’s number one aviation market within the next 10 years”.

The rise in demand for new aircraft will be led by single-aisle jets in the Asia Pacific region. Approximately 22,000 new single-aisle aircraft, like the Airbus A320 or Boeing 737, are expected to be ordered over the next 20 years. And 37% of these will go to airlines based in Asia, notably low-cost carriers in China, India and Southeast Asia.

In terms of twin-aisle jets, Airbus predicts demand for 7,800 new 250-400-seat aircraft, like the A350 or B777, and 1,500 new aircraft with 400+ seats, like the A380. Of these, half are expected to be delivered to airlines in the Asia Pacific region.

Airbus also noted that the average size of aircraft has increased 40% since the 1980s, in line with rising passenger demand. This trend is expected to continue in the next two decades.