The world will need approximately 34,000 new commercial aircraft worth US$4.5 trillion over the next 20 years, as the current global fleet doubles in size, according to Boeing.
The US planemaker’s latest Current Market Outlook (CMO) released yesterday, is based on air traffic growing at an annual rate of 5% over the next two decades. The single-aisle market, including the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 will account for approximately 68% of the total market, with 23,240 new aircraft worth US$2.03trn expected to be needed.
Based on the huge orders of recent years, including Lion Air’s deal for 230 B737s, IndiGo’s order for 180 A320s and AirAsia’s purchase of 200 A320s, Asia Pacific looks set to lead the world’s single-aisle market.
Twin-aisle aircraft such as B777 and B787, A330 and A350 models are expected to see demand for 7,950 new aircraft with US$2.08trn by 2030, while 790 large jets such as the B747-8 and A380 will be sold, with a value of US$280bn. Boeing noted that 40% of the demand for wide-bodied jets is expected to be generated by Asian airlines. Regional jets are expected to account for 2,020 orders worth US$80bn.
“The world’s aviation market is broader, deeper and more diverse than we’ve ever seen it,” said Randy Tinseth, Vice President of Marketing for Boeing’s commercial division. “It has proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and is driving production rate increases across the board.”
Boeing stated that growth in emerging markets in Asia, along with the growth of low-cost carriers, are a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years. The company also sees a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient airplanes. Fleet replacements are expected to account for 41% of new deliveries in the forecast.
By region, Asia Pacific will take delivery of 12,030 by 2030 – more than 35% of the global market. This is followed by Europe (7,760), North America (7,290), Latin America (2,510), the Middle East (2,370), Russia and the CIS (1,140) and Africa (900).
“It’s incredible to see just how much air travel has changed since I took my first flight back in 1977,” said Tinseth. “It has become critical to business and something we do for pleasure, to connect with family and friends. As the market continues to grow, especially in emerging economies, air travel will become affordable to even more people.”
