The uncertain security situation in Paris following the 13 November terror attacks will impact the city’s tourism industry in the short- to mid-term, but will have little broader impact on the French tourism industry overall, new research from Euromonitor has found.
“Following the November 13 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris where 129 people lost their lives, the outlook for travel and tourism demand in Paris is likely to be impacted in the short to medium term. Paris is the world’s fifth largest city in terms of international arrivals,” commented Caroline Bremner, head of Travel at Euromonitor International.
“The latest arrivals data for Paris with 15 million visitors shows that the city was already losing out to rival European competitors such as London, Barcelona and Amsterdam with a dip of 2% over 2013/2014 due to a lack of competitiveness in terms of product offer and lack of unique activities.”
Paris’s largest source markets are the US and UK, which were already in decline, Bremner said. The worsening security situation will deter visitors particularly from the US who may choose other European destinations that are not under such visible threat.
Paris is also one of the world’s leading luxury shopping destinations and was heavily affected by the sharp fall in Russian visitors in 2014/20015 due to the Ukraine crisis and Russian recession.
Paris has a relatively large share of business travelers accounting for 38% of international arrivals in 2014, and the corporate business segment is much more sensitive to security risks than the leisure sector. “This dependency on business demand will lead to sharp potential fall in MICE visitors in the short term, particularly as uncertainty over the political response and potential counter-attacks remain unclear,” Bremner said.
According to Euromonitor data, France is the world’s leading destination, however, Paris accounts for less than 20% of France’s total arrivals – 15 million vs 84 million 2014.
While there may be a slight slowdown for France as a whole, Euromonitor does not predict that the country will witness a decline for 2015/2016 as tourism is very much integrated into every region of the country and so will act as a shock-absorber to the impact in the capital.
Following the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January 2015, the French government was swift to respond and reassure the public that safety and security was paramount.
“The Charlie Hebdo attacks in the first quarter of 2015 did not lead to a decline in tourism demand, in fact, data from the UNWTO shows that growth was stronger than the previous year’s quarter (2.9% Q1 2015 vs -2.7% Q1 2014),” Bremner said.
In addition to a coordinated political and military response to the latest atrocities by the French government, the travel industry and its stakeholders “will now need to work together to ensure that crisis management systems are in place and also send a clear marketing message to the rest of the world that Paris is open for business”, she added.
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